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Table 4 Predictors of mortality according to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis

From: Clinical profile and outcome of surgical treatment of perforated peptic ulcers in Northwestern Tanzania: A tertiary hospital experience

Predictor (independent) variable

Survivors N (%)

Non-survivors n (%)

Univariate analysis

Multivariate analysis

   

O.R. (95% C.I.)

p-value

(O.R. 95% C.I.)

p-value

Age

      

< 40

51(98.1)

1 (1.9)

    

≥40

24(75.0)

8 (25.0)

2.33(1.25-3.42)

0.032

4.61(2.72-7.91)

0.002

Sex

      

Male

42 (87.5)

6 (12.5)

    

Female

33 (91.7)

3 (8.3)

1.25 (0.32-3.56)

0.896

2.93 (0.94-3.81)

0.983

Premorbid illness

      

Yes

2 (33.3)

4 (66.7)

    

No

73 (93.6

5 (6.4)

6.21(1.49-7.01)

0.039

3.78(2.98-7.90)

0.017

Previous PUD

      

Yes

23 (88.0)

3(12.0)

    

No

52 (89.7)

6 (10.3)

1.75(0.76-4.34)

0.896

3.11(0.98-4.88)

0.345

HIV status

      

Positive

1(12.5)

7 (87.5)

    

Negative

74(97.4)

2 (2.6)

0.56(0.12-0.86)

0.005

1.74(1.21-4.98)

0.001

CD 4+ count

      

< 200 cells/μl

1(50.0)

1 (50.0)

    

≥ 200 cells/μl

4(66.7)

2 (33.3)

5.91(2.76-7.99)

0.001

1.65(1,22-7.43)

0.000

Duration of illness

      

<24 hours

23 (92.0)

2 (8.0)

    

≥24 hours

48 (87.3)

7 (12.7)

2.32(0.54-6.45)

0.986

0.09(0.02-1.11)

0.315

Shock on admission (SBP < 90 mmHg)

      

Yes

28 (77.8)

8 (22.2)

    

No

47 (87.9)

1(2.1)

7.9(3.98-9.88)

0.022

3,74(2,11-7.76)

0.005

Timing of surgical treatment

      

< 48 hours

19 (95.0)

1 (5.0)

    

≥ 48 hours

56 (87.5)

8 (12.5%)

2.87(2.11-7.21)

0.044

2.91(1.22-6.66)

0.028

Amount of fluid (mls

      

< 200

19 (95.0)

1 (5.0)

    

≥200

56(87.5)

8 (12.5)

0.67(0.23-4.65)

0.982

1.61(0.89-2.73)

0.067

Site of perforation

      

Duodenum

72 (93.4)

5 (6.6)

    

Gastric

2 (33.3)

4 (66.7)

5.81(3.33-6.92)

0.012

1.35(1.11-3.86)

0.018

Size of ulcer

      

Sealed

7 (100.0)

0(0)

    

<5 mm

12 (92.3)

1(7.7)

    

≥5 mm

56 (87.5)

8(12.5)

1.98(0.45-3.82)

0.987

3.13(0.99-4.89)

0.453

Complications

      

Present

18 (72.0)

7(28.0)

    

Absent

57(96.6)

2 (3.4)

1.98(1.54-7.93)

0.005

2.86(2.22-6.45)

0.011